Sun, Dec 1, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 210 | 23 | 423 |
| OTT | 010 | 114 | 18 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:22DETJohan FranzenAssists: Jakub Kindl, Daniel Alfredsson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 11:13DETDrew MillerAssists: Tomas Tatar, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 14:14OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Milan Michalek, Chris Phillips · Snap, 0.38 xG2–1
- P3 1:58DETDrew MillerGWGAssists: Brendan Smith, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 18:39OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Erik Karlsson, Zack Smith · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 18:57DETDaniel AlfredssonENAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.54 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:39DETMikael Samuelsson: Interference2 min
- P1 9:51DETMikael Samuelsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:40DETBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 11:39OTTMilan Michalek: Holding2 min
- P3 8:26DETBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist12:30
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Tatar7:33
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Cleary – Samuelsson – Weiss6:12
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Abdelkader – Helm12:01
xG 0.14–0.23 (39%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kindl – Smith2:25
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith13:23
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson16:34
xG 0.19–0.26 (43%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – MacArthur2:33
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Condra – Grant – Conacher4:23
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Zibanejad8:20
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ryan – Turris2:15
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Corvo14:07
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Borowiecki8:18
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen16:45
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).