Sun, Dec 1, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 110 | 17 | 06 | 2 | 332 |
| DAL | 018 | 112 | 113 | 02 | 1 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:37DALRyan GarbuttSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 19:55EDMAles HemskyAssists: Ryan Jones, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P3 3:45DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Antoine Roussel, Vernon Fiddler · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 14:53EDMAndrew FerenceAssists: David Perron · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 2. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 3. DAL Rich Peverley scored
- 4. EDM David Perron scored
- 5. DAL Alex Chiasson stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:59DALRay Whitney: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:20DALRich Peverley: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:18EDMJustin Schultz: Holding2 min
- P1 17:59EDMJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:50EDMNick Schultz: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:29DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:38DALJordie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:52EDMAnton Belov: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:10DALTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
- P3 16:01DALRyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Yakupov3:13
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Smyth – Joensuu – Acton2:26
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Perron – Arcobello2:49
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Joensuu – Arcobello3:10
xG 0.02–0.40 (6%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Schultz2:37
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Schultz – Belov6:34
xG 0.77–0.65 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schultz2:54
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Roussel – Garbutt7:34
xG 0.42–0.08 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Jeffrey – Nichushkin3:14
xG 0.04–0.14 (21%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Whitney – Cole – Peverley7:18
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Benn – Chiasson – Eakin8:25
xG 0.89–1.17 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski12:38
xG 1.24–0.71 (63%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Dillon – Oleksiak11:09
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Benn12:53
xG 1.03–1.19 (46%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).