Tue, Dec 3, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
San Jose Sharks 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 213 | 118 | 110 | 441 |
| TOR | 05 | 217 | 08 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:00SJSMike BrownAssists: Jason Demers, Andrew Desjardins · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:31SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 2:44TORMason RaymondPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 9:47TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.39 xG2–2
- P2 16:00SJSBrad StuartGWGAssists: Dan Boyle · Tip-in, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 18:36SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:47TORFrazer McLaren: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:04TORJay McClement: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:47TORMason Raymond: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:28SJSJames Sheppard: Interference2 min
- P2 1:07SJSDan Boyle: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:26TORJerred Smithson: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:26SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 8:55SJSLogan Couture: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:10TORMason Raymond: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Holland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Desjardins – Sheppard6:20
xG 0.97–0.06 (94%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels11:39
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Havlat – Pavelski – Kennedy10:23
xG 0.65–0.83 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Stuart8:48
xG 1.25–0.51 (71%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Hannan – Demers10:05
xG 0.61–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun13:01
xG 0.46–0.61 (43%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Raymond – Smith10:20
xG 0.83–0.51 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Raymond – Kulemin – Holland2:43
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Holland7:09
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Smithson – McClement – Kulemin3:49
xG 0.06–0.08 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly4:07
xG 0.40–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner2:42
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ranger – Gardiner11:52
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).