Tue, Dec 3, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 221 | 114 | 110 | 445 |
| FLA | 210 | 012 | 010 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:44FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–1
- P1 8:22FLABrian CampbellPPAssists: Scottie Upshall, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 10:58OTTJoe CorvoAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P1 18:45OTTErik CondraAssists: Jason Spezza, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 19:17OTTColin GreeningPPGWGAssists: Joe Corvo, Zack Smith · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 11:52OTTBobby RyanAssists: Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:14FLAMike Mottau: Interference2 min
- P1 5:36OTTMike Hoffman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:23OTTJason Spezza: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 15:00FLAJimmy Hayes: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00FLABrian Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:12FLAMike Mottau: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:43FLAScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:43OTTEric Gryba: Interference2 min
- P2 17:38FLAShawn Matthias: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:35FLAScottie Upshall: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:26FLAScottie Upshall: Interference2 min
- P3 8:16OTTChris Phillips: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Greening – Smith10:06
xG 0.83–0.25 (77%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Spezza – MacArthur – Condra7:16
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Michalek – Conacher – Zibanejad9:03
xG 0.04–0.28 (12%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman8:12
xG 0.19–0.87 (18%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Cowen9:49
xG 0.92–0.38 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Phillips – Corvo12:27
xG 0.43–0.70 (38%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Methot – Karlsson15:32
xG 0.58–0.94 (38%)attempts 22–16goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau7:32
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Bergenheim – Hayes – Barkov3:24
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Boyes – Goc – Fleischmann2:35
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Goc – Fleischmann – Winchester5:00
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert16:01
xG 1.06–0.74 (59%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson13:11
xG 0.79–0.55 (59%)attempts 19–19goals 0–2
- Campbell – Weaver3:47
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).