Wed, Dec 4, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 112 | 412 | 634 |
| DET | 110 | 216 | 09 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17DETTomas TatarAssists: Drew Miller, Joakim Andersson · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:48PHISteve DowniePPAssists: Sean Couturier, Matt Read · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 8:24DETJohan FranzenAssists: Stephen Weiss, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 10:13DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–3
- P2 16:38PHIMatt ReadAssists: Sean Couturier, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 5:15PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 8:28PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Steve Downie, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 9:58PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Mark Streit · Slap, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 19:01PHISean CouturierENAssists: Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.56 xG6–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 12:13DETKyle Quincey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:38PHISteve Downie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:04PHISteve Downie: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 9:12PHIZac Rinaldo: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:09PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:47PHILuke Schenn: Charging2 min
- P2 18:43PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P3 4:17DETStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:36DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:08PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHISteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Franzen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Simmonds – Schenn – Raffl9:42
xG 0.21–0.23 (49%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo2:42
xG 0.02–0.08 (16%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:02
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Downie – Read – Couturier10:55
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn9:39
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Streit – Grossmann14:52
xG 0.44–0.40 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Meszaros – Schenn11:05
xG 0.44–0.59 (43%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Franzen – Nyquist9:33
xG 0.49–0.25 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Abdelkader – Helm9:31
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Tatar7:03
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Cleary – Samuelsson – Emmerton5:59
xG 0.15–0.12 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith9:34
xG 0.54–0.08 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson12:32
xG 0.33–0.23 (60%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Quincey3:09
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).