Thu, Dec 5, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 1, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 18 | 09 | 123 |
| STL | 16 | 314 | 16 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:47STLJay BouwmeesterPPAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Ian Cole · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:19NYIAndrew MacDonaldPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:02STLDerek RoyPPGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–2
- P2 9:33STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 14:59STLMagnus PaajarviAssists: Patrik Berglund, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 13:19STLBrenden MorrowAssists: Derek Roy, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:32STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:09NYIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:44STLBrenden Morrow: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:48NYIThomas Vanek: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:00STLAlexander Steen: Holding2 min
- P1 16:00NYIAndrew MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P2 3:54STLDerek Roy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:20NYIMatt Martin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:02NYIMatt Carkner: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:02STLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:02NYIMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:02NYIMatt Carkner: Instigator2 min
- P2 17:54NYIMatt Martin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:54STLVladimir Sobotka: Interference2 min
- P3 13:59NYIAaron Ness: Holding2 min
- P3 17:31NYIAndrew MacDonald: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBouchard – Regin – Clutterbuck7:18
xG 0.68–0.10 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas9:41
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Bailey5:54
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares10:44
xG 0.45–0.54 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic10:18
xG 0.97–0.16 (86%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Carkner – Ness6:02
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan2:46
xG 0.06–0.08 (41%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie10:09
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Berglund – Paajarvi6:21
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Morrow – Stewart – Berglund3:47
xG 0.14–0.09 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart4:16
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Cole13:25
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo11:15
xG 0.58–0.58 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk12:23
xG 0.37–0.64 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).