Thu, Dec 5, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 14 | 39 | 110 | 523 |
| NSH | 07 | 28 | 07 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:23CARJustin FaulkUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 0:50NSHMike FisherAssists: Victor Bartley, Seth Jones · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 2:41NSHViktor StalbergAssists: Nick Spaling · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 6:11CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Ryan Murphy, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 11:51CARRiley NashGWGAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 19:08CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 17:53CARJeff SkinnerENAssists: Justin Faulk, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.58 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:41NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:18CARNathan Gerbe: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:04NSHViktor Stalberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:09CARJustin Peters: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 9:44CARRon Hainsey: Interference2 min
- P2 17:19NSHViktor Stalberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:39NSHGabriel Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:12NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:12CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:12NSHPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:50CARNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Skinner11:20
xG 0.65–0.10 (87%)attempts 20–3goals 2–1
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Staal5:38
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Gerbe – Nash2:11
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Tlusty – Staal – Lindholm2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk12:04
xG 0.91–0.06 (94%)attempts 21–2goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Faulk2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Harrison3:08
xG 0.03–0.11 (22%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Stalberg – Spaling7:38
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Nystrom5:36
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson11:43
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
- Legwand – Smith – Bourque8:00
xG 0.02–0.28 (6%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm7:03
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Klein – Ekholm4:33
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bartley – Ellis3:39
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).