Sun, Dec 8, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 010 | 317 | 212 | 539 |
| TOR | 110 | 09 | 113 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:20TORPeter HollandAssists: David Clarkson, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 5:14BOSCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 6:47BOSTorey KrugPPAssists: David Krejci, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 15:58BOSKevan MillerGWGAssists: Carl Soderberg · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 0:37TORJay McClementAssists: Peter Holland, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P3 16:00BOSJarome IginlaAssists: Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 19:49BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: Gregory Campbell, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:17BOSDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:26TORDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:26BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:49TORNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:50TORCarter Ashton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 5:34TORCarl Gunnarsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:43BOSDennis Seidenberg: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 6:09BOSKevan Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:43BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith11:25
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Fraser – Spooner6:41
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic11:30
xG 0.70–1.04 (40%)attempts 23–17goals 1–0
- Campbell – Paille – Caron9:24
xG 0.40–1.02 (28%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Miller3:31
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug2:22
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bartkowski – Krug2:19
xG 0.10–0.03 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Kulemin – Ashton3:29
xG 0.64–0.12 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McClement – Kulemin – Holland5:07
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri15:51
xG 1.05–0.93 (53%)attempts 20–20goals 0–1
- Clarkson – Raymond – Smith13:04
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 16–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson11:22
xG 0.87–0.53 (62%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
- Franson – Gardiner16:25
xG 1.29–0.98 (57%)attempts 22–21goals 2–0
- Ranger – Gunnarsson2:01
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).