Tue, Dec 10, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New Jersey Devils 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 29 | 17 | 118 | 434 |
| CBJ | 15 | 213 | 25 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Reid Boucher, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:09CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 10:02NJDMichael RyderAssists: Adam Henrique, Steve Bernier · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 1:08NJDDamien BrunnerAssists: Patrik Elias, Dainius Zubrus · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 4:19CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Cam Atkinson, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 5:08CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 0:18CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–4
- P3 13:59NJDDamien BrunnerAssists: Patrik Elias, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 18:29CBJNick FolignoGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, R.J. Umberger · Deflected, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:24CBJNikita Nikitin: Holding2 min
- P2 11:41NJDDamien Brunner: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:27CBJNikita Nikitin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Henrique – Boucher2:34
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Elias – Bernier – Brunner2:56
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Jagr – Zajac – Boucher10:22
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac4:12
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Gelinas4:36
xG 0.34–0.08 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Fayne – Greene12:34
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Greene – Merrill3:29
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson12:24
xG 0.90–0.39 (70%)attempts 7–10goals 3–1
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen13:12
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp7:57
xG 0.12–0.33 (27%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Comeau – Anisimov – Jenner10:01
xG 0.13–0.37 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson17:59
xG 1.05–0.34 (75%)attempts 8–15goals 3–1
- Nikitin – Prout14:54
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray17:58
xG 0.25–0.67 (27%)attempts 6–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).