Thu, Dec 12, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 316 | 06 | 15 | 427 |
| NYR | 116 | 011 | 17 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Cam Atkinson, Fedor Tyutin · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 8:46CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Blake Comeau, Boone Jenner · Slap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 11:10CBJDavid SavardGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P1 14:08NYRDominic MooreAssists: Brad Richards · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 11:07NYRDan GirardiAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 18:28CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:18NYRMats Zuccarello: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:07CBJFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min
- P1 19:19CBJRyan Johansen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:19NYRDerek Dorsett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:10CBJNick Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:10NYRBrian Boyle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:24CBJBrandon Dubinsky: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:51CBJBrandon Dubinsky: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:48NYRDerek Dorsett: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:48CBJDalton Prout: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp7:34
xG 0.54–0.15 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Comeau – Anisimov – Jenner9:29
xG 0.76–0.44 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen12:29
xG 0.48–0.56 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:16
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Prout14:06
xG 0.98–0.54 (64%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson16:32
xG 0.53–0.77 (41%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
- Savard – Murray13:53
xG 0.60–0.84 (42%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:57
xG 0.99–0.32 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Richards – Nash – Pouliot4:03
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Pouliot – Dorsett2:52
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Zuccarello2:23
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh12:18
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh4:50
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Stralman – Moore2:30
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).