Thu, Dec 12, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 16 | 29 | 322 |
| STL | 316 | 110 | 210 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48STLDavid BackesAssists: Alexander Steen, Jay Bouwmeester · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 12:59STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 16:10STLDerek RoyAssists: Chris Stewart, Jaden Schwartz · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 0:29STLChris StewartGWGAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 1:45TORNazem KadriAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 7:04STLAlexander SteenAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 14:30TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Mason Raymond, Trevor Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 16:52TORJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 19:30STLDavid BackesENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:47TORJay McClement: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:27STLAlexander Steen: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:24STLBarret Jackman: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:28TORDavid Clarkson: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 17:56TORDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:56STLRoman Polak: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:19STLIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:01TORDavid Clarkson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sobotka won the faceoff against Holland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Holland2:53
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kulemin – Holland7:16
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Clarkson – Raymond – Smith6:48
xG 0.13–0.24 (34%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- McClement – McLaren – D'Amigo4:03
xG 0.05–0.44 (11%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gardiner – Rielly15:16
xG 0.45–0.80 (36%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Franson – Gunnarsson10:58
xG 0.24–0.67 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 2–1
- Ranger – Fraser14:56
xG 0.22–0.66 (25%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Stewart – Schwartz9:31
xG 0.80–0.12 (87%)attempts 12–3goals 2–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie11:42
xG 0.79–0.14 (85%)attempts 14–4goals 2–1
- Morrow – Lapierre – Cracknell7:21
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Berglund – Tarasenko9:34
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:11
xG 1.24–0.25 (83%)attempts 21–8goals 2–2
- Jackman – Shattenkirk12:45
xG 0.56–0.32 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Polak – Cole12:37
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).