Fri, Dec 13, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 219 | 013 | 239 |
| PIT | 312 | 05 | 06 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41PITPascal DupuisAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 7:55PITChris ConnerAssists: Brandon Sutter, Joe Vitale · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 14:40PITJayson MegnaGWGAssists: Simon Despres, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–3
- P2 3:24NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Anton Volchenkov, Steve Bernier · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 4:20NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:32PITOlli Maatta: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:02PITChris Kunitz: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:35NJDAdam Henrique: Broken stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Zubrus – Zajac14:23
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 21–10goals 1–1
- Janssen – Sestito – Josefson6:44
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Elias – Bernier – Brunner11:33
xG 0.44–0.47 (49%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Ryder – Henrique – Boucher10:45
xG 0.16–0.65 (19%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Merrill9:01
xG 0.61–0.12 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Fayne – Greene18:54
xG 0.61–0.38 (62%)attempts 22–15goals 1–1
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky6:26
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – Megna8:02
xG 0.75–0.29 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Vitale – Conner – Sutter11:00
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby13:06
xG 0.41–0.40 (50%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
- Adams – Kobasew – Sill4:12
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Niskanen15:59
xG 0.49–0.54 (48%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Despres14:38
xG 0.31–0.65 (32%)attempts 9–22goals 1–1
- Letang – Maatta16:06
xG 0.17–0.65 (21%)attempts 6–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).