Fri, Dec 13, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 0, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 06 | 09 | 019 |
| VAN | 014 | 112 | 314 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:41VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Jason Garrison, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 2:26VANZack KassianAssists: David Booth, Jason Garrison · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 6:07VANChris HigginsAssists: Ryan Kesler, Mike Santorelli · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 19:25VANDale WeisePPAssists: Yannick Weber, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:41VANHenrik Sedin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:39EDMPhilip Larsen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:39VANHenrik Sedin: Interference2 min
- P2 8:05EDMMark Arcobello: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:28VANHenrik Sedin: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:12EDMDavid Perron: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins2:25
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gordon – Joensuu – Yakupov7:25
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Jones – Gazdic – Gagner3:34
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:06
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Schultz13:42
xG 0.26–0.47 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Ference – Larsen16:51
xG 0.27–0.77 (26%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
- Petry – Belov15:48
xG 0.59–1.34 (30%)attempts 10–23goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Booth – Kassian10:15
xG 1.35–0.46 (74%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen13:13
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Dalpe – Weise – Welsh7:29
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Santorelli12:45
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Garrison3:35
xG 0.53–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev15:06
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Stanton15:30
xG 0.61–0.47 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).