Tue, Dec 17, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, New York Islanders 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 08 | 214 | 01 | 2 | 336 |
| NYI | 012 | 111 | 110 | 01 | 1 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:11NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: John Tavares, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 10:21NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Michael Grabner, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 17:07TBLValtteri FilppulaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 19:56TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: JT Brown, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYI Thomas Vanek stopped
- 2. TBL Valtteri Filppula scored
- 3. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 4. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
- 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:27TBLRadko Gudas: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:16NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:16TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:56TBLTyler Johnson: Holding2 min
- P3 3:26NYICal Clutterbuck: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Panik – Palat2:15
xG 0.68–0.09 (88%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Kucherov – Brown3:25
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown8:40
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat11:18
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gudas16:04
xG 1.15–0.94 (55%)attempts 26–11goals 1–0
- Brewer – Barberio4:12
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Salo – Taormina10:24
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabner – Bailey11:22
xG 1.30–0.17 (88%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares12:59
xG 1.14–0.74 (61%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Boulton – Regin – Martin7:28
xG 0.03–0.34 (9%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Nelson – Strome10:21
xG 0.21–0.54 (28%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan16:20
xG 1.22–0.66 (65%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hickey15:49
xG 0.77–0.54 (59%)attempts 15–23goals 1–0
- Strait – Hamonic3:40
xG 0.16–0.00 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).