Tue, Dec 17, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 111 | 05 | 03 | 0 | 231 |
| MIN | 19 | 07 | 111 | 05 | 1 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:46VANJannik HansenAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 11:46MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 11:01VANDavid BoothAssists: Yannick Weber, Mike Santorelli · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–1
- P3 8:47MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 2. VAN Mike Santorelli stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 4. VAN Chris Higgins stopped
- 5. MIN Jason Pominville scored
- 6. VAN Ryan Kesler stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:56MINKeith Ballard: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:35VANChris Higgins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:55VANDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:55MINZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:08VANKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:16MINZenon Konopka: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Santorelli15:52
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Sestito – Dalpe – Weise4:53
xG 0.13–0.06 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen14:00
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Richardson – Booth – Kassian10:06
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber3:05
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Stanton5:14
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Tanev2:46
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Haula – Niederreiter10:58
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle14:59
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Cooke – Heatley – Brodziak4:00
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Bulmer9:42
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon12:10
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Ballard – Stoner8:08
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Brodin6:25
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).