Thu, Dec 19, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 112 | 214 | 435 |
| OTT | 214 | 010 | 010 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:39FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Shawn Matthias, Krys Barch · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 9:17OTTChris NeilAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P1 19:31OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Craig Anderson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 17:11FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Tom Gilbert, Brian Campbell · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 17:28FLATom GilbertPPGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Marcel Goc · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 18:19FLATomas KopeckySHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:21OTTColin Greening: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:47FLATomas Kopecky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:41OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P3 10:20FLAErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:30OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:45FLAMike Weaver: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarch – Matthias – Hayes5:43
xG 0.14–0.07 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann10:07
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Upshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau12:06
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov10:36
xG 0.36–0.73 (33%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOlsen – Gudbranson11:47
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov13:10
xG 0.63–0.57 (52%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson2:28
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris12:15
xG 0.69–0.37 (65%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Smith7:28
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Greening – Condra – Pageau2:52
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith2:50
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCowen – Ceci2:31
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson2:57
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Corvo – Methot11:53
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).