Sat, Dec 21, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 312 | 09 | 114 | 03 | 2 | 538 |
| TOR | 17 | 28 | 17 | 01 | 0 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:15TORCody FransonUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 8:57DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Riley Sheahan, Danny DeKeyser · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 13:18DETJoakim AnderssonAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Brendan Smith · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 18:08DETTomas JurcoAssists: Riley Sheahan, Jordin Tootoo · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 11:45TORDion PhaneufAssists: Joffrey Lupul · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 18:24TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 8:32TORDavid ClarksonAssists: Jay McClement, Nikolay Kulemin · Snap, 0.25 xG3–4
- P3 13:44DETTomas TatarAssists: Tomas Jurco, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.22 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 2. DET Daniel Alfredsson scored
- 3. TOR Mason Raymond stopped
- 4. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:56DETDrew Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:14DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:06DETKyle Quincey: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:25TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P3 10:23DETBrian Lashoff: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Eaves – Glendening8:54
xG 0.88–0.18 (83%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco2:47
xG 0.68–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Sheahan – Jurco4:23
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Tatar10:05
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith14:53
xG 1.48–0.18 (89%)attempts 27–6goals 2–2
- Kronwall – Ericsson16:54
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser2:48
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Clarkson – Kulemin14:09
xG 0.64–0.19 (77%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Smithson – Bodie – D'Amigo2:47
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri14:00
xG 0.20–0.71 (22%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Lupul – Raymond – Holland12:18
xG 0.18–1.09 (15%)attempts 8–18goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson14:48
xG 0.68–0.19 (78%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Gunnarsson – Gardiner2:03
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Liles – Gardiner2:07
xG 0.04–0.20 (16%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).