Sat, Dec 21, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Calgary Flames 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 28 | 112 | 330 |
| PIT | 25 | 213 | 05 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:26PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 11:45PITHarry ZolnierczykAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, James Neal · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 6:58CGYPaul ByronAssists: Joe Colborne, Chris Butler · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 14:44PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Simon Despres · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 18:55PITMatt NiskanenGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Robert Bortuzzo · Snap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 19:14CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 1:03CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Matt Stajan, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:10PITJames Neal: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:22CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P2 10:37CGYJiri Hudler: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:31PITJoe Vitale: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:49CGYJoe Colborne: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:21PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
- P3 13:35PITSimon Despres: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:35CGYJoe Colborne: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Hudler – Stempniak6:00
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Hudler – Jones – Colborne2:38
xG 0.02–0.02 (56%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Bouma2:09
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Byron – Backlund12:03
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Butler10:04
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Russell – Brodie13:05
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Giordano – Smid14:24
xG 0.34–0.93 (27%)attempts 10–18goals 1–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby10:17
xG 0.79–0.33 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Adams – Kobasew – Sill3:21
xG 0.01–0.01 (57%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Vitale – Sutter – Zolnierczyk3:20
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Neal – Conner3:31
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Dumoulin2:42
xG 0.39–0.03 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
- Despres – Samuelsson9:36
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Samuelsson2:21
xG 0.01–0.00 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).