Sat, Dec 21, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Montréal Canadiens 4, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 38 | 06 | 08 | 11 | 423 |
| NSH | 07 | 220 | 16 | 01 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:30MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Lars Eller · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 13:20MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alexei Emelin · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 14:37MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brian Gionta · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 11:51NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Matt Cullen, Viktor Stalberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 18:09NSHNick SpalingPPAssists: Shea Weber, Craig Smith · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 13:40NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Mike Fisher, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.24 xG3–3
- OT 1:43MTLDavid DesharnaisGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:20NSHMatt Cullen: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:57NSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:57MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:15NSHViktor Stalberg: Interference2 min
- P2 16:49MTLDavid Desharnais: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:32MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:40MTLAndrei Markov: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher15:28
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Moen – Prust – Bournival5:17
xG 0.04–0.02 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Galchenyuk13:38
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Brière – Bourque – Eller10:56
xG 0.11–0.73 (14%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Subban19:39
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban2:15
xG 0.09–0.09 (49%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin15:45
xG 0.58–0.73 (45%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Stalberg – Bourque11:11
xG 0.70–0.11 (87%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson14:29
xG 0.63–0.69 (47%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Nystrom7:59
xG 0.02–0.11 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Spaling – Smith12:53
xG 0.40–0.54 (42%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi16:31
xG 1.01–0.31 (77%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm8:48
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Klein – Ekholm6:01
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).