Mon, Dec 23, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Phoenix Coyotes 1, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 015 | 17 | 011 | 04 | 137 |
| BUF | 03 | 012 | 113 | 14 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:19PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Connor Murphy, Tim Kennedy · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 14:01BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- OT 3:47BUFMark PysykGWGAssists: Matt Moulson, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:09BUFJohn Scott: Interference2 min
- P1 8:47PHXMike Ribeiro: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:28BUFMatt Moulson: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:16BUFDrew Stafford: Elbowing5 min
- P2 11:16BUFDrew Stafford: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 13:47PHXMartin Hanzal: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:22BUFMatt Moulson: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:53PHXMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:00PHXDerek Morris: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vrbata won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy11:33
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker3:47
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Korpikoski5:40
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Halpern – Bissonnette – Chipchura2:47
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy14:44
xG 0.34–0.35 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle14:04
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Klesla – Stone10:55
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Girgensons12:06
xG 1.03–0.51 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Ellis – D'Agostini – Flynn10:03
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ott – Stafford – Larsson7:39
xG 0.05–0.09 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Ott – Scott – Larsson3:20
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – McBain8:13
xG 0.60–0.11 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk9:15
xG 0.32–0.04 (90%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers2:17
xG 0.05–0.08 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).