Mon, Dec 23, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 316 | 211 | 636 |
| FLA | 111 | 012 | 06 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:56FLASean BergenheimPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 19:15TBLAlex KillornAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 3:22TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 8:01TBLValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 12:07TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 3:40TBLJT BrownAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jean-Philippe Cote · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–1
- P3 13:36TBLJT BrownAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Matt Carle · Tip-in, 0.09 xG6–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:34FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P1 15:04TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:16TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:28TBLMatt Carle: Concealing puck2 min
- P2 6:48FLATom Gilbert: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:48FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:04FLAAlexander Petrovic: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Johnson – Palat9:34
xG 0.65–0.19 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown11:41
xG 1.03–0.84 (55%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Crombeen – Pyatt3:16
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn10:37
xG 0.40–0.53 (43%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Hedman11:12
xG 1.19–0.02 (98%)attempts 22–1goals 3–0
- Hedman – Sustr2:47
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Salo – Cote2:00
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau3:21
xG 0.55–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann4:56
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Matthias4:51
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Bjugstad2:31
xG 0.02–0.01 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov11:54
xG 0.92–0.60 (60%)attempts 9–12goals 0–3
- Campbell – Gilbert16:15
xG 1.27–1.34 (49%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
- Olsen – Petrovic13:01
xG 0.11–0.71 (14%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).