Mon, Dec 23, 2013·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 4, San Jose Sharks 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 215 | 05 | 211 | 02 | 0 | 433 |
| SJS | 113 | 221 | 16 | 05 | 2 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:05COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Erik Johnson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 13:59SJSJason DemersPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 19:11COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Paul Stastny, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 5:53SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Thornton, Matt Irwin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 13:02SJSMatt IrwinPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Tommy Wingels · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 18:09COLErik JohnsonAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 18:21COLJamie McGinnAssists: John Mitchell, Max Talbot · Snap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 19:40SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.24 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 4. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 5. SJS Patrick Marleau scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:26COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:26SJSMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:54COLJamie McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:54SJSBrad Stuart: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 10:24SJSTommy Wingels: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:21COLAndre Benoit: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:57SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:28COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:10COLPA Parenteau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:05SJSPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:54COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Stastny – Landeskog11:42
xG 1.50–0.78 (66%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McGinn10:17
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche4:03
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Duchene – MacKinnon14:31
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Barrie2:05
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie12:31
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Sarich – Benoit13:53
xG 0.57–0.79 (42%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Wingels12:00
xG 0.77–0.30 (72%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Brown – Desjardins – Sheppard6:15
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kennedy – McCarthy – Nieto10:28
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun14:31
xG 0.70–0.25 (73%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Irwin10:47
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Stuart – Demers7:54
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).