Fri, Dec 27, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 19 | 29 | 11 | 426 |
| CAR | 116 | 110 | 16 | 02 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:58CARAndrej SekeraAssists: Jordan Staal, Nathan Gerbe · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:16PITSidney CrosbyAssists: James Neal, Olli Maatta · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:30CARNathan GerbeAssists: Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P3 1:58PITChris ConnerAssists: Jussi Jokinen, James Neal · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 13:15PITDeryk EngellandAssists: Brooks Orpik, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 17:31CARDrayson BowmanAssists: Riley Nash, Patrick Dwyer · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 1:03PITJames NealGWGAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 5:12PITChuck Kobasew: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:55CARDrayson Bowman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Neal9:06
xG 1.08–0.52 (68%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Vitale – Conner3:17
xG 0.28–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Kobasew – Sutter – Zolnierczyk6:17
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Neal – Conner8:01
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Despres15:51
xG 0.72–0.32 (69%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Orpik – Engelland17:22
xG 0.73–0.84 (46%)attempts 13–25goals 2–1
- Niskanen – Maatta18:13
xG 0.51–0.86 (37%)attempts 13–18goals 1–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Gerbe – Staal15:23
xG 1.27–1.00 (56%)attempts 21–19goals 2–1
- Dwyer – Nash – Bowman11:00
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Boychuk6:28
xG 0.12–0.15 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner12:55
xG 0.30–0.69 (30%)attempts 17–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk19:17
xG 1.21–1.11 (52%)attempts 20–22goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Murphy19:27
xG 0.50–0.58 (46%)attempts 20–11goals 1–2
- Komisarek – Gleason14:20
xG 0.49–0.68 (42%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).