Fri, Dec 27, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 2, Chicago Blackhawks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 17 | 16 | 218 |
| CHI | 312 | 412 | 013 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:27CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:03CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Marian Hossa, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 19:18CHIPatrick SharpPPGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 0:27CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.29 xG0–4
- P2 8:21CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–5
- P2 9:07COLPaul StastnyAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, PA Parenteau · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–5
- P2 13:30CHIMichal HandzusAssists: Patrick Kane, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–6
- P2 17:48CHIKris VersteegAssists: Duncan Keith, Michal Handzus · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–7
- P3 7:37COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: PA Parenteau · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:44COLMax Talbot: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:46COLJamie McGinn: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:59CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:39CHIMichal Rozsival: Delaying game2 min
- P3 19:56COLTyson Barrie: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Stastny – Landeskog14:13
xG 0.88–0.57 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 2–2
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche8:38
xG 0.09–0.49 (15%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Talbot – Mitchell – McGinn13:53
xG 0.09–0.95 (9%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Duchene – MacKinnon13:47
xG 0.26–1.13 (19%)attempts 6–18goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Guenin – Benoit14:40
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Wilson – Barrie18:25
xG 0.68–1.16 (37%)attempts 11–19goals 2–1
- Hejda – Johnson17:13
xG 0.43–1.56 (21%)attempts 10–24goals 0–4
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Versteeg – Kane12:04
xG 0.92–0.04 (95%)attempts 14–3goals 2–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews13:47
xG 1.22–0.40 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 3–0
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig9:48
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bickell – Shaw – Saad12:46
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson17:05
xG 1.46–0.28 (84%)attempts 23–7goals 3–0
- Rozsival – Leddy17:11
xG 0.87–0.09 (90%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook17:19
xG 0.55–0.93 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).