Fri, Dec 27, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 4, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 313 | 15 | 011 | 429 |
| WPG | 411 | 010 | 217 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:13MINDany HeatleyAssists: Jason Pominville, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 3:48WPGEvander KaneSHAssists: Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 5:57WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Chris Thorburn · Snap, 0.25 xG1–2
- P1 6:54MINJustin FontaineAssists: Matt Cooke, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P1 7:04MINStephane VeilleuxAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Torrey Mitchell · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P1 14:50WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Jacob Trouba, Andrew Ladd · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–3
- P1 17:50WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Eric Tangradi, Adam Pardy · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P2 3:40MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jason Pominville · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–4
- P3 10:40WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd · Tip-in, 0.33 xG4–5
- P3 19:56WPGToby EnstromENAssists: Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.44 xG4–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:34WPGJames Wright: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:19MINJason Pominville: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:44WPGOlli Jokinen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:16WPGMichael Frolik: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:02MINJustin Fontaine: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Veilleux – Konopka – Mitchell5:53
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine10:41
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Heatley – Pominville – Granlund11:13
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Koivu – Coyle – Niederreiter13:52
xG 0.50–0.87 (36%)attempts 18–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Suter – Brodin18:51
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon15:06
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Ballard – Prosser12:31
xG 0.26–0.85 (24%)attempts 8–15goals 1–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little12:11
xG 1.01–0.27 (79%)attempts 23–11goals 2–0
- Tangradi – Peluso – Wright4:42
xG 0.20–0.14 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Thorburn – Setoguchi10:20
xG 0.54–0.49 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Frolik – Kane – Scheifele15:12
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Trouba17:25
xG 1.29–0.26 (83%)attempts 24–13goals 3–0
- Pardy – Melchiori7:40
xG 0.03–0.15 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Ellerby18:13
xG 0.41–0.61 (40%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).