Fri, Dec 27, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 4, Phoenix Coyotes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 012 | 27 | 110 | 03 | 2 | 432 |
| PHX | 111 | 112 | 112 | 02 | 1 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:43PHXDavid MossUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 9:56SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 11:04PHXDavid MossAssists: David Schlemko, Mike Ribeiro · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 13:13SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Tommy Wingels, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 10:10SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 13:35PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHX Mikkel Boedker scored
- 2. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 3. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
- 4. SJS Patrick Marleau scored
- 5. PHX Oliver Ekman-Larsson stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:48SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:48PHXKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:37PHXTim Kennedy: Elbowing2 min
- P1 19:42SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P2 11:18PHXDerek Morris: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:13PHXDerek Morris: Interference2 min
- P3 11:50SJSTommy Wingels: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Desjardins – Sheppard7:33
xG 0.59–0.15 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels11:56
xG 0.58–0.57 (51%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Kennedy – McCarthy – Nieto7:49
xG 0.05–0.47 (9%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Demers7:09
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Braun8:00
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Boyle – Irwin12:52
xG 0.59–0.72 (45%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker13:03
xG 0.75–0.46 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal12:17
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Moss – Kennedy9:48
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Halpern – Chipchura – Szwarz2:46
xG 0.02–0.56 (3%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Stone11:51
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy15:56
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Morris – Yandle19:42
xG 0.68–1.11 (38%)attempts 20–28goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).