Sat, Dec 28, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 2, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 06 | 111 | 225 |
| NYI | 09 | 08 | 114 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Reid Boucher, Michael Ryder · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 10:31NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Kyle Okposo, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 13:03NJDTravis ZajacGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Jaromir Jagr · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:44NYIMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:44NJDRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:46NYICal Clutterbuck: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:02NJDJon Merrill: Holding2 min
- P2 18:12NJDMarek Zidlicky: Holding2 min
- P3 16:32NJDMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gionta won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Bernier – Gionta10:12
xG 0.62–0.17 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac13:17
xG 1.00–0.69 (59%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Janssen – Loktionov – Boucher2:10
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ryder – Clowe – Henrique11:02
xG 0.81–1.16 (41%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGelinas – Merrill14:51
xG 1.17–0.46 (72%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene13:54
xG 0.74–0.31 (70%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky16:32
xG 1.03–1.36 (43%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabner – Bailey6:51
xG 1.17–0.36 (76%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Nelson9:01
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Cizikas2:21
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Regin – Clutterbuck – Strome6:29
xG 0.16–0.23 (40%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan13:57
xG 1.42–1.03 (58%)attempts 23–12goals 1–1
- Carkner – Strait9:25
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Strait – Hamonic4:23
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).