Sat, Dec 28, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 05 | 014 | 26 | 00 | 225 |
| ANA | 114 | 016 | 19 | 12 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:08ANASaku KoivuSHAssists: Daniel Winnik, Francois Beauchemin · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 5:04ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Daniel Winnik, Saku Koivu · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 15:26PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Michael Stone · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 19:16PHXMike RibeiroAssists: Keith Yandle, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 0:51ANASaku KoivuGWGAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:31ANABryan Allen: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:22PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:29ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:36PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:10PHXRadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker7:11
xG 0.48–0.20 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy2:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Halpern – Chipchura – Brule8:43
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal8:15
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Stone9:47
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy16:38
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle19:12
xG 0.34–0.91 (27%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Penner11:48
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Bonino – Maroon – Silfverberg9:57
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano14:07
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Selanne – Beleskey – Perreault8:12
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Vatanen16:41
xG 0.83–0.08 (91%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm13:49
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Fowler16:23
xG 0.21–0.52 (28%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).