Sun, Dec 29, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 1, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 015 | 015 | 115 | 05 | 0 | 150 |
| BUF | 03 | 18 | 05 | 01 | 1 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:18BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Christian Ehrhoff · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 5:34WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Eric Fehr · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 2. WSH Eric Fehr stopped
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 5. BUF Zemgus Girgensons stopped
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 7. BUF Linus Omark stopped
- 8. WSH Mikhail Grabovski stopped
- 9. BUF Brian Flynn stopped
- 10. WSH Troy Brouwer stopped
- 11. BUF Steve Ott scored
- 12. WSH Mike Green stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:53BUFSteve Ott: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:49BUFMarcus Foligno: Instigator2 min
- P2 13:49BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:49WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:49BUFMarcus Foligno: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:53WSHJay Beagle: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:53BUFMike Weber: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Flynn won the faceoff against Erat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Grabovski – Brouwer10:48
xG 0.78–0.22 (78%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Chimera – Erat – Ward12:47
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson7:22
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson14:05
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson15:33
xG 0.75–0.18 (81%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Green – Orlov18:06
xG 0.73–0.52 (59%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Erskine – Oleksy16:14
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestD'Agostini – Omark – Leino2:14
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Omark – Leino – Foligno8:10
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Ellis – D'Agostini – Scott7:11
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Stafford – Flynn14:55
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Myers2:34
xG 0.02–0.10 (17%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Weber – McBain14:33
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk15:00
xG 0.31–0.54 (36%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).