Sun, Dec 29, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 18 | 312 | 530 |
| CBJ | 19 | 112 | 17 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 4:55PITJames NealPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:34PITJames NealAssists: Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 13:42CBJCorey TroppAssists: Boone Jenner, Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 10:51PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, James Neal · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 12:58PITChris KunitzPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, James Neal · Slap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 17:33PITJames NealPPAssists: Joe Vitale, Deryk Engelland · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 18:31CBJNikita NikitinAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Blake Comeau · Slap, 0.01 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:27CBJCorey Tropp: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:59CBJMark Letestu: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:30CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:48PITJoe Vitale: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:48PITJames Neal: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:39CBJBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:25CBJDerek MacKenzie: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:47CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:27PITJames Neal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Neal6:22
xG 0.39–0.15 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Kobasew – Jokinen – Sutter2:19
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Sutter – Gibbons4:47
xG 0.03–0.03 (48%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Neal – Conner4:34
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Niskanen – Maatta12:23
xG 0.27–0.66 (29%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
- Orpik – Engelland14:29
xG 0.33–0.72 (31%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Bortuzzo14:21
xG 0.06–0.68 (8%)attempts 4–22goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Foligno – Johansen12:07
xG 0.74–0.25 (75%)attempts 16–4goals 0–2
- Dubinsky – Anisimov – Atkinson8:41
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Skille8:26
xG 0.11–0.06 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Letestu – Tropp – Jenner7:43
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson11:49
xG 1.01–0.40 (72%)attempts 18–9goals 1–2
- Nikitin – Savard15:07
xG 0.51–0.06 (89%)attempts 20–6goals 2–0
- Wisniewski – Murray16:33
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).