Sun, Dec 29, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
New York Rangers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 214 | 29 | 06 | 429 |
| TBL | 212 | 012 | 116 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30NYRRick NashAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 10:41TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 16:05TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Radko Gudas, Jean-Philippe Cote · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 18:25NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 4:35NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 7:51NYRBenoit PouliotPPGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 8:14TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Teddy Purcell, Dmitry Korobov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:11NYRJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:17TBLValtteri Filppula: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- P2 3:18TBLDmitry Korobov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:42TBLJean-Philippe Cote: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:11NYRDan Girardi: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stepan – Kreider15:47
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Hagelin – Miller11:21
xG 0.29–0.63 (31%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Richards – Brassard – Zuccarello11:15
xG 0.24–0.69 (26%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett10:32
xG 0.17–0.63 (21%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Moore15:35
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Falk – Allen4:37
xG 0.16–0.10 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh2:57
xG 0.11–0.17 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Johnson – Palat14:41
xG 1.09–0.39 (74%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn15:01
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown11:41
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Hedman10:20
xG 0.66–0.15 (82%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Cote – Gudas7:31
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Carle – Sustr13:33
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).