Tue, Dec 31, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 5, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 312 | 211 | 531 |
| BOS | 113 | 211 | 014 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Jarome Iginla, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P2 5:56NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:33BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Ryan Spooner, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 12:58BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Zdeno Chara · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 16:30NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 19:57NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 0:32NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 13:17NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.12 xG5–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 10:52NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:49BOSJordan Caron: Holding2 min
- P2 5:28BOSMatt Bartkowski: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:47NYICalvin de Haan: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:05BOSTorey Krug: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:33BOSMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:19BOSTuukka Rask: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 12:48BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:48BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:48NYIColin McDonald: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:35NYIBrian Strait: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:03BOSMilan Lucic: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:03BOSMilan Lucic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:03BOSMilan Lucic: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Nelson – Strome8:33
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Clutterbuck – Grabner7:43
xG 0.29–0.57 (34%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Regin – Martin – Cizikas9:15
xG 0.15–0.98 (13%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares10:59
xG 0.11–0.95 (10%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – de Haan14:26
xG 0.53–0.65 (45%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hickey14:46
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Carkner – Strait10:32
xG 0.29–1.17 (20%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic11:58
xG 1.71–0.85 (67%)attempts 19–22goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith10:47
xG 0.35–0.05 (86%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Campbell – Paille – Caron5:13
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Johnson – Fraser – Spooner7:19
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk14:06
xG 1.22–0.19 (87%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Bartkowski11:55
xG 0.90–0.65 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug10:50
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).