Thu, Jan 2, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Montréal Canadiens 6, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 211 | 311 | 628 |
| DAL | 111 | 110 | 211 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Kevin Connauton · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:00MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 1:35MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: P.K. Subban, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 5:23DALValeri NichushkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- P2 6:30MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Max Pacioretty, Carey Price · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 3:30MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 7:42DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Cody Eakin, Kevin Connauton · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 8:29DALBrenden DillonAssists: Alex Goligoski, Rich Peverley · Slap, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 10:39MTLLars EllerGWGAssists: Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–4
- P3 18:56MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.65 xG6–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 8:12MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:13DALValeri Nichushkin: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:09DALCameron Gaunce: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:09MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:56DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:56MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:02DALErik Cole: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:02MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:23MTLJosh Gorges: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 9:58MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:42DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:08DALCody Eakin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:31MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:39DALAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:31
xG 1.03–0.22 (82%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Moen – Prust – Eller4:00
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Prust – Eller – Galchenyuk5:53
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Moen – White – Bournival2:33
xG 0.05–0.05 (47%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Diaz12:18
xG 0.98–0.25 (79%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Subban17:28
xG 0.90–0.29 (75%)attempts 18–17goals 2–2
- Markov – Gorges13:02
xG 0.21–1.21 (15%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Peverley – Nichushkin7:44
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt8:54
xG 0.65–0.59 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Jeffrey4:46
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Chiasson – Seguin7:00
xG 0.13–0.16 (44%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGaunce – Connauton10:50
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Rome – Benn14:16
xG 0.39–0.92 (30%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Dillon17:12
xG 0.44–1.40 (24%)attempts 19–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).