Thu, Jan 2, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 1, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 16 | 011 | 124 |
| SJS | 217 | 210 | 19 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:37SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 15:26SJSPatrick MarleauGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 7:18SJSBracken KearnsAssists: Andrew Desjardins, James Sheppard · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 8:45SJSLogan CoutureAssists: John McCarthy · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 15:39EDMNail YakupovAssists: Sam Gagner, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 5:44SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Matt Irwin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:14SJSMatt Nieto: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:52EDMDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:04EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:38EDMNick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:20SJSFreddie Hamilton: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:08SJSDan Boyle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Joensuu – Gazdic – Lander9:59
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Smyth – Hemsky – Gordon9:09
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Yakupov11:43
xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Perron – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins9:38
xG 0.00–0.73 (0%)attempts 2–14goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Marincin – Belov13:50
xG 0.25–0.50 (33%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Schultz – Petry12:27
xG 0.26–0.57 (31%)attempts 9–17goals 0–3
- Ference – Schultz17:05
xG 0.07–0.54 (11%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Nieto10:20
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kearns – Sheppard10:34
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Brown – McCarthy – Hamilton7:10
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Demers8:50
xG 0.43–0.10 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Demers2:18
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Braun – Irwin10:55
xG 0.34–0.39 (46%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).