Fri, Jan 3, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 26 | 010 | 229 |
| CGY | 05 | 08 | 06 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:23TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Mark Barberio · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 10:20TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:10CGYKevin Westgarth: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:10TBLNate Thompson: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:10CGYShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:36CGYKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:36TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:38TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:01TBLTeddy Purcell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:16CGYMichael Cammalleri: Interference2 min
- P2 8:12CGYMichael Cammalleri: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 14:03TBLRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P2 16:19CGYJiri Hudler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:43TBLRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:58TBLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:31CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Kucherov – Brown4:51
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Malone – Thompson – Panik2:53
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn11:27
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat9:34
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Gudas2:25
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Brewer – Barberio4:32
xG 0.55–0.15 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Carle – Barberio2:57
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Westgarth – Galiardi – Colborne3:45
xG 0.04–0.01 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hudler – Jones – Monahan6:34
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Backlund6:53
xG 0.13–0.18 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Stajan – Byron4:24
xG 0.22–0.49 (32%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Butler8:21
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie12:42
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Wideman – Giordano2:20
xG 0.04–0.41 (9%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).