Sat, Jan 4, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Nashville Predators 4, Florida Panthers 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 112 | 216 | 04 | 1 | 442 |
| FLA | 210 | 17 | 111 | 01 | 2 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:32NSHCraig SmithAssists: Nick Spaling, David Legwand · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:03FLABrad BoyesAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Tom Gilbert · Tip-in, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 17:56FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Marcel Goc, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P2 16:32NSHMike FisherAssists: Colin Wilson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 17:29FLASean BergenheimAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 1:34FLAMarcel GocAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 14:52NSHSeth JonesAssists: Roman Josi, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 19:12NSHPaul GaustadAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.30 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 2. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 3. NSH David Legwand scored
- 4. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 5. NSH Colin Wilson stopped
- 6. FLA Brad Boyes stopped
- 7. NSH Matt Hendricks stopped
- 8. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 9. NSH Patric Hornqvist stopped
- 10. FLA Dmitry Kulikov stopped
- 11. NSH Gabriel Bourque stopped
- 12. FLA Tomas Kopecky scored
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:05FLABrian Campbell: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:24NSHNick Spaling: Interference2 min
- P3 10:26NSHMike Fisher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:59FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Nystrom – Stalberg9:28
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Hendricks – Bourque9:38
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson12:27
xG 0.50–0.74 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Legwand – Spaling – Smith11:46
xG 0.50–0.82 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Ellis11:46
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi20:17
xG 0.41–0.53 (44%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Jones14:57
xG 0.83–1.14 (42%)attempts 14–12goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Barkov13:37
xG 1.16–0.36 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 2–2
- Kopecky – Goc – Huberdeau14:25
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Barch – Matthias – Hayes6:42
xG 0.04–0.25 (13%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Bjugstad12:51
xG 0.23–0.59 (28%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert19:13
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Jovanovski – Petrovic9:10
xG 0.64–0.56 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 3–0
- Weaver – Kulikov17:14
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).