Sat, Jan 4, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Carolina Hurricanes 3, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 314 | 09 | 330 |
| NYI | 010 | 114 | 116 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:57CARManny MalhotraAssists: Patrick Dwyer · Snap, 0.29 xG1–0
- P2 7:41NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 13:12CARJordan StaalAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 14:09CARBrett SutterGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 19:35NYIThomas VanekPPAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:34CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:41NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:34NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:03CARAlexander Semin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Gerbe – Staal9:20
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Semin – Sutter – Skinner3:11
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Sutter – Boychuk6:12
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Semin – Skinner3:55
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore17:22
xG 1.00–0.60 (63%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
- Liles – Murphy12:58
xG 0.94–0.78 (55%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk18:28
xG 0.98–1.13 (46%)attempts 14–19goals 2–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- McDonald – Nelson – Strome8:43
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Clutterbuck – Grabner10:41
xG 0.49–0.60 (45%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Regin – Martin – Cizikas8:53
xG 0.27–0.59 (31%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares16:46
xG 0.82–1.81 (31%)attempts 10–26goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan15:15
xG 1.01–0.54 (65%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic2:31
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- MacDonald – de Haan2:18
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).