Sun, Jan 5, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Winnipeg Jets 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 211 | 313 | 010 | 534 |
| PIT | 011 | 411 | 217 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:47WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Olli Jokinen, Adam Pardy · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 19:56WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Evander Kane, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 1:06PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 4:25PITJames NealPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 4:59PITJames NealUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 6:02WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 11:38PITJussi JokinenAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P2 17:31WPGEvander KaneUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–4
- P2 19:42WPGEvander KaneAssists: Mark Scheifele, Michael Frolik · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 8:29PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: James Neal · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–5
- P3 12:38PITMatt NiskanenGWGAssists: Olli Maatta, Chris Kunitz · Slap, 0.02 xG5–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:17WPGAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:14PITCraig Adams: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:41WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P1 14:17PITMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
- P1 16:52WPGMark Stuart: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 16:52WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:52PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:12WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:06PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little9:49
xG 0.77–0.15 (83%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Frolik – Kane – Scheifele12:22
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Tangradi – O'Dell – Wright2:38
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Thorburn – Setoguchi10:09
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian15:39
xG 1.05–0.73 (59%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Stuart – Bogosian2:19
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 2–5goals 2–0
- Pardy – Trouba12:19
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – Neal9:28
xG 0.93–0.17 (85%)attempts 18–9goals 4–0
- Pyatt – Vitale – Sutter5:08
xG 0.36–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Gibbons10:26
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Adams – Glass – Sill2:18
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Maatta15:01
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Orpik – Engelland13:38
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- Scuderi – Letang13:44
xG 0.58–1.04 (36%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).