Mon, Jan 6, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 4, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 14 | 27 | 18 | 419 |
| COL | 27 | 010 | 18 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08CGYSean MonahanAssists: Lee Stempniak, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 7:17COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Andre Benoit · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 14:32COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 15:10CGYJoe ColborneAssists: TJ Galiardi, Shane O'Brien · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 17:38CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Mark Giordano, Mikael Backlund · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 9:33COLPaul StastnyAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Jan Hejda · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 16:30CGYMichael CammalleriPPGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:37CGYMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:42CGYKevin Westgarth: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 0:26COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:12CGYKevin Westgarth: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:12CGYJoe Colborne: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:24COLJamie McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:06COLJamie McGinn: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Hudler – Backlund11:39
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Byron – Monahan7:26
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Westgarth – Galiardi – Colborne6:00
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Stajan – Bouma3:55
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Butler9:30
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:16
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Wideman – Smid15:19
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:53
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Bordeleau – Cliche – Malone5:04
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Mitchell – McLeod – MacKinnon8:37
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Talbot – McGinn – Duchene11:33
xG 0.21–0.63 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie11:56
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson14:41
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Sarich – Benoit11:38
xG 0.04–0.53 (7%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).