Tue, Jan 7, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Islanders 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 18 | 36 | 525 |
| TOR | 114 | 18 | 14 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:05TORTyler BozakAssists: Paul Ranger, James van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:16NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 3:06NYIMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 8:25TORMason RaymondPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 3:41NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, John Tavares · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 6:01NYICalvin de HaanGWGAssists: Travis Hamonic, John Tavares · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 16:55TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 19:51NYICal ClutterbuckENAssists: Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 0:53NYICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:51NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:22NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:59NYIMatt Carkner: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:33TORJoffrey Lupul: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 6:42NYIBrian Strait: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Bailey – Nelson7:05
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Strome9:14
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas4:41
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares12:42
xG 0.18–0.28 (40%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hickey2:31
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Hamonic – de Haan20:32
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 19–14goals 2–2
- Carkner – Hickey7:22
xG 0.13–0.30 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Kulemin – D'Amigo13:37
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Lupul – Raymond – Kadri11:12
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:51
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Orr – McLaren – Holland4:04
xG 0.01–0.07 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Phaneuf12:25
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Franson – Gardiner14:17
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Ranger – Rielly12:19
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).