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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 7, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

New York Islanders 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.

TOR winsNYI wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:17Shot by McClement, saved by Poulin
  3. P1 1:49Shot by Clutterbuck, saved by Bernier
  4. P1 3:19Shot by Vanek, saved by Bernier
  5. P1 3:27Shot by Vanek, saved by Bernier
  6. P1 3:46Shot by McClement, saved by Poulin
  7. P1 3:52Shot by McClement, saved by Poulin
  8. P1 4:47Shot by Okposo, saved by Bernier
  9. P1 5:05Goal by Bozak (Ranger, van Riemsdyk)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ranger, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Rielly · NYI Nielsen, Okposo, Bailey, Hamonic, de Haan

  10. P1 6:08Shot by Franson, saved by Poulin
  11. P1 6:22Shot by Grabner, saved by Bernier
  12. P1 7:37Shot by Gleason, saved by Poulin
  13. P1 8:16Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Poulin
  14. P1 8:40Shot by Strome, saved by Bernier
  15. P1 10:24Shot by Okposo, saved by Bernier
  16. P1 12:29Shot by Gardiner, saved by Poulin
  17. P1 12:46Shot by Clutterbuck, saved by Bernier
  18. P1 12:59Shot by de Haan, saved by Bernier
  19. P1 14:43Shot by Ranger, saved by Poulin
  20. P1 14:44Shot by Kessel, saved by Poulin
  21. P1 14:57Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Poulin
  22. P1 15:12Shot by Kadri, saved by Poulin
  23. P1 16:00Shot by Nelson, saved by Bernier
  24. P1 18:09Shot by Lupul, saved by Poulin
  25. P1 19:16Goal by Okposo (Tavares, Hamonic)+22 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Gleason, McClement, Phaneuf, Kulemin, van Riemsdyk · NYI Vanek, Okposo, Hamonic, Tavares, de Haan

  26. P1 19:21Shot by Kulemin, saved by Poulin
  27. P1 0:00Period end
  28. P2 0:00Period start
  29. P2 0:19Shot by Tavares, saved by Bernier
  30. P2 0:23Shot by Tavares, saved by Bernier
  31. P2 0:53de Haan: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR McClement, Franson, Kulemin, Gardiner, D'Amigo · NYI Nielsen, Bailey, Hamonic, de Haan, Nelson

  32. P2 1:12Shot by Kessel, saved by Poulin5v4
  33. P2 3:06Goal by Grabner, unassisted+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Orr, Raymond, Gardiner, Kadri, Rielly · NYI Vanek, Grabner, MacDonald, Hickey, Tavares

  34. P2 3:38Shot by Hickey, saved by Bernier
  35. P2 6:17Shot by Kadri, saved by Poulin
  36. P2 6:51Hamonic: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ranger, Lupul, Raymond, Kadri, Rielly · NYI Clutterbuck, Grabner, Hamonic, de Haan, Strome

  37. P2 7:35Shot by Franson, saved by Poulin5v4
  38. P2 8:23Shot by Gardiner, saved by Poulin5v4
  39. P2 8:25Goal by Raymond (Gardiner, Kadri)5v4+19 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Raymond, Gardiner, Kadri, Rielly · NYI Grabner, Strait, de Haan, Cizikas

  40. P2 9:25Shot by Okposo, saved by Bernier
  41. P2 10:14Shot by Strome, saved by Bernier
  42. P2 11:45Shot by Strait, saved by Bernier
  43. P2 13:22Tavares: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Gleason, Phaneuf, Raymond, Kadri, D'Amigo · NYI Vanek, Okposo, Hickey, Tavares, de Haan

  44. P2 15:13Shot by Franson, saved by Poulin5v4
  45. P2 15:35Shot by Kadri, saved by Poulin
  46. P2 16:32Shot by Rielly, saved by Poulin
  47. P2 16:38Shot by Strome, saved by Bernier
  48. P2 16:59Carkner: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Orr, Ranger, McLaren, Bozak, Rielly · NYI Boulton, Carkner, MacDonald, Martin, Cizikas

  49. P2 0:00Period end
  50. P3 0:00Period start
  51. P3 2:33Lupul: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Raymond, Franson, Gardiner, Kadri · NYI Carkner, Clutterbuck, Grabner, Hickey, Strome

  52. P3 3:41Goal by Nielsen (Vanek, Tavares)4v5+26 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ranger, Franson, Kulemin, D'Amigo · NYI Nielsen, Vanek, Okposo, Hamonic, Tavares

  53. P3 4:09Shot by Clutterbuck, saved by Bernier
  54. P3 6:01Goal by de Haan (Hamonic, Tavares)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Gleason, McClement, Phaneuf, Kulemin, D'Amigo · NYI Vanek, Okposo, Hamonic, Tavares, de Haan

  55. P3 6:34Shot by Gardiner, saved by Poulin
  56. P3 6:42Strait: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ranger, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Rielly · NYI Nielsen, Strait, MacDonald, Bailey, Nelson

  57. P3 8:33Shot by Lupul, saved by Poulin5v4
  58. P3 12:07Shot by Gleason, saved by Poulin
  59. P3 13:09Shot by Nelson, saved by Bernier
  60. P3 16:55Goal by Lupul (Kadri)+8 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Raymond, Gardiner, Kadri, Rielly · NYI Nielsen, Bailey, Hamonic, de Haan, Nelson

  61. P3 18:33Shot by Bailey, saved by Bernier
  62. P3 19:51Goal by Clutterbuck (Grabner)6v5+3 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Franson, Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak · NYI Clutterbuck, Grabner, MacDonald, Hamonic, Cizikas

  63. P3 0:00Period end
  64. P3 0:00Final