Tue, Jan 7, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 15 | 112 | 216 | 433 |
| WPG | 12 | 17 | 05 | 214 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Teddy Purcell, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:43WPGOlli JokinenPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 4:45WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Ondrej Pavelec · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 15:37TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 8:39TBLMartin St. LouisPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Teddy Purcell · Tip-in, 0.34 xG3–2
- P3 19:33TBLMartin St. LouisENAssists: Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–2
Penalties (24)
- P1 5:06TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:06WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:17TBLValtteri Filppula: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:30TBLAnders Lindback: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:34WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:31TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:35TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:35WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:17WPGAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:38TBLRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:38WPGBlake Wheeler: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:38WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:48TBLMark Barberio: Holding2 min
- P3 5:22WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:48WPGMichael Frolik: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:27TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:19WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P3 16:19WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:19WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:19TBLEric Brewer: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:19TBLJean-Philippe Cote: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:40TBLEric Brewer: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:40TBLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:40WPGEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Johnson – Palat11:19
xG 0.49–0.02 (96%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn9:00
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Thompson – Panik – Kucherov5:37
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gudas12:11
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Brewer – Barberio7:17
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Salo – Hedman11:18
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Jokinen – Tangradi – Wright7:04
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Thorburn – Setoguchi3:32
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Frolik – Kane – Scheifele13:23
xG 0.13–0.48 (21%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:13
xG 0.12–0.59 (17%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Byfuglien10:35
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Pardy – Trouba9:33
xG 0.05–0.44 (11%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian14:40
xG 0.05–0.74 (6%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).