Thu, Jan 9, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 013 | 012 | 19 | 01 | 1 | 235 |
| BUF | 08 | 16 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:13BUFJamie McBainAssists: Steve Ott, Matt D'Agostini · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 9:16FLABrad BoyesAssists: Tom Gilbert, Sean Bergenheim · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 2. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 3. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 4. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 5. BUF Steve Ott stopped
- 6. FLA Brad Boyes scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:52FLAEd Jovanovski: Interference2 min
- P1 13:23BUFJohn Scott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:05FLAJimmy Hayes: Interference2 min
- P2 14:49BUFAlexander Sulzer: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:19BUFLinus Omark: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:19BUFJohn Scott: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Barkov14:49
xG 0.55–0.14 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Barch – Hayes – Shore3:59
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Upshall2:13
xG 0.12–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Bjugstad7:44
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert16:04
xG 0.78–0.16 (83%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson12:11
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson2:14
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOmark – Foligno – Flynn8:46
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Konopka – Ellis – Scott4:45
xG 0.03–0.05 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Ott – D'Agostini – Larsson12:24
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons13:07
xG 0.36–0.68 (34%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – McNabb13:16
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk14:09
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Sulzer – Weber17:32
xG 0.42–1.25 (25%)attempts 12–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).