Thu, Jan 9, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Washington Capitals 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 39 | 06 | 15 | 420 |
| TBL | 112 | 111 | 113 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:04WSHEric FehrAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 10:37WSHMikhail GrabovskiPPAssists: Joel Ward, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 19:48WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 6:45TBLB.J. CrombeenAssists: Victor Hedman, Tom Pyatt · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 14:30TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Matt Carle, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 19:08WSHEric FehrGWGAssists: Mike Green, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:49TBLNate Thompson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:50TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:36WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:39TBLMatt Carle: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Laich – Brouwer – Backstrom16:10
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Fehr – Ovechkin – Grabovski11:32
xG 0.62–0.68 (48%)attempts 19–12goals 2–1
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson4:26
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Johansson11:02
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Carrick10:35
xG 0.39–0.23 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Green – Orlov17:45
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 18–13goals 1–2
- Orlov – Carrick2:24
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Thompson – Kucherov2:43
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Kucherov3:31
xG 0.11–0.06 (67%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn15:29
xG 0.68–0.62 (52%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat12:51
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestCote – Carle6:55
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas4:20
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Brewer – Carle3:01
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).