Thu, Jan 9, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 1, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 08 | 05 | 125 |
| SJS | 19 | 314 | 03 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 16:48DETTomas TatarAssists: Luke Glendening, Brendan Smith · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 9:44SJSAndrew DesjardinsGWGAssists: Bracken Kearns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 12:25SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brad Stuart, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–3
- P2 16:28SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Jason Demers, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (19)
- P1 12:34DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:42DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:53SJSAndrew Desjardins: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:40SJSScott Hannan: Holding2 min
- P2 15:57DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:11DETKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:57SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:57SJSTyler Kennedy: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:57SJSTyler Kennedy: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:57DETKyle Quincey: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:55DETTodd Bertuzzi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:55DETTodd Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:55SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:55SJSTommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:07SJSScott Hannan: Instigator2 min
- P3 18:07SJSScott Hannan: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:07DETDaniel Cleary: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:07DETDaniel Cleary: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:07SJSScott Hannan: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Zetterberg – Abdelkader3:59
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Miller – Abdelkader4:09
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Andersson – Tatar3:55
xG 0.05–0.06 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Andersson – Tatar3:26
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Quincey – DeKeyser10:44
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith3:22
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kindl – Lashoff9:43
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBrown – McCarthy – Hayes6:01
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Wingels – Nieto8:58
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Desjardins – Kearns6:15
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hannan – Boyle6:32
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic3:39
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Demers6:43
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).