Sat, Jan 11, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 4, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 03 | 29 | 26 | 418 |
| MIN | 07 | 27 | 013 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:08COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Paul Stastny, Max Talbot · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 13:25COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: John Mitchell, Andre Benoit · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 14:19MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 14:59MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Dany Heatley, Nate Prosser · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 12:44COLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 18:50COLMax TalbotENAssists: Andre Benoit · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:32COLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:14COLKarl Stollery: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:09MINStephane Veilleux: Holding2 min
- P2 11:21MINMatt Cooke: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:13MINMatt Cooke: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Mitchell – McLeod – Cliche3:33
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McGinn – Duchene – MacKinnon6:09
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – Cliche – Malone4:08
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene7:02
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWilson – Stollery9:17
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Sarich – Benoit14:17
xG 0.37–0.44 (45%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Benoit – Wilson2:10
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Zucker – Coyle10:49
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine10:41
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter13:45
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Veilleux – Mitchell – Haula5:22
xG 0.07–0.11 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin22:11
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 22–10goals 0–2
- Scandella – Prosser13:25
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Stoner – Blum9:28
xG 0.06–0.11 (37%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).