Sun, Jan 12, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 1, New York Rangers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 017 | 06 | 115 | 138 |
| NYR | 313 | 115 | 07 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14NYRDaniel CarcilloUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 2:42NYRRick NashGWGAssists: Chris Kreider, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 9:24NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Benoit Pouliot · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 13:18NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Brad Richards · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–4
- P3 6:49PHIMark StreitPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Vincent Lecavalier · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 6:20NYRDan Girardi: Interference2 min
- P1 12:08PHINicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
- P1 18:15PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PHIChris VandeVelde: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:05PHILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:05NYRDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:48PHIMark Streit: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:37PHINicklas Grossmann: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:56NYRMats Zuccarello: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:39NYRRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min
- P3 19:49PHILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:49NYRJohn Moore: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:49PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:49PHIWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:49NYRDaniel Carcillo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:49PHILuke Schenn: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:49NYRBrian Boyle: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – McGinn – Couturier8:31
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Giroux – Voracek3:27
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl6:41
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Hall – Rosehill – VandeVelde3:36
xG 0.01–0.29 (4%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Coburn – Meszaros2:22
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Streit – Grossmann10:45
xG 0.47–0.46 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Meszaros – Schenn9:35
xG 0.60–0.60 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Boyle – Carcillo6:56
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider8:43
xG 0.53–0.33 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello7:50
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin6:48
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh15:03
xG 0.89–0.68 (57%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Moore11:40
xG 0.77–0.69 (53%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Staal – Stralman11:45
xG 0.47–0.48 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).