Sun, Jan 12, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 16 | 18 | 321 |
| CHI | 111 | 319 | 111 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08EDMAles HemskyAssists: Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 14:26CHIBen SmithAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Marcus Kruger · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 2:36CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Brandon Saad, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 11:29EDMBoyd GordonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–2
- P2 11:58CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 17:32CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 5:17EDMTaylor HallAssists: Justin Schultz, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 14:19CHIBrent SeabrookUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:57EDMRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:23EDMTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:29EDMDevan Dubnyk: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:04CHIMarcus Kruger: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:10EDMMark Arcobello: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:48EDMDevan Dubnyk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kruger won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins2:53
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Gordon – Perron5:37
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Smyth – Perron – Arcobello4:01
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Yakupov2:13
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Marincin15:43
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Schultz – Belov10:01
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
- Ference – Schultz16:03
xG 0.37–1.05 (26%)attempts 8–22goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Shaw – Saad10:41
xG 1.16–0.21 (85%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews12:12
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig9:28
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Handzus – Bickell – Versteeg7:50
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Leddy10:48
xG 1.00–0.32 (76%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook15:46
xG 0.93–0.37 (72%)attempts 22–9goals 3–1
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson15:15
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).