Sun, Jan 12, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 4, Nashville Predators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 03 | 29 | 423 |
| NSH | 05 | 09 | 09 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:03MINDany HeatleyGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 14:15MINJason ZuckerAssists: Dany Heatley, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P3 1:14MINMatt CookeAssists: Justin Fontaine, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–0
- P3 10:16MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:37MINNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:57NSHPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:57MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:25NSHMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:40MINClayton Stoner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Brodziak – Fontaine11:10
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Heatley – Zucker – Coyle12:05
xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Veilleux – Mitchell – Haula8:38
xG 0.05–0.22 (19%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter15:07
xG 0.33–0.53 (39%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser14:13
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Suter – Stoner2:02
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Stoner – Blum8:54
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Hornqvist – Wilson14:43
xG 0.47–0.07 (88%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Hendricks – Nystrom9:16
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Clune – Stalberg8:22
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Legwand – Spaling – Smith10:58
xG 0.11–0.74 (13%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi23:16
xG 0.72–0.42 (63%)attempts 27–12goals 0–1
- Klein – Ekholm2:20
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ellis – Jones3:49
xG 0.13–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).