Tue, Jan 14, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 112 | 315 | 433 |
| BUF | 15 | 07 | 27 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:59BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Steve Ott, Matt D'Agostini · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 1:40PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 6:27BUFMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Steve Ott, Cody Hodgson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 13:28PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Scott Hartnell, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 15:53PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 16:47BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Matt Moulson, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 19:45PHIVincent LecavalierGWGAssists: Matt Read, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:19BUFMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:28PHIAndrej Meszaros: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:22BUFAlexander Sulzer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:39BUFZenon Konopka: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:12PHIJay Rosehill: Interference2 min
- P2 7:02PHINicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min
- P2 11:47BUFBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:01PHIAdam Hall: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:31BUFBrian Flynn: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:06BUFZenon Konopka: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl9:57
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Simmonds – Schenn9:38
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Lecavalier – Read – Couturier8:06
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Hall – Rosehill – VandeVelde2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn8:45
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Streit – Grossmann11:10
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Meszaros – Schenn11:04
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – D'Agostini – Hodgson8:28
xG 0.55–0.44 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Konopka – Ellis – Foligno5:20
xG 0.08–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Moulson – Omark – Ennis2:01
xG 0.10–0.08 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons8:58
xG 0.42–0.46 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – McNabb12:23
xG 0.47–0.24 (67%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk12:13
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 8–14goals 2–1
- Sulzer – Weber13:01
xG 0.16–0.65 (19%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).